The Beautiful Groan

Firstly, apologies for the lack of posting, I’ve caught one of the many nasty winter bugs going round and consequently have spent a large amount of time doing precisely nothing.

This also meant I was unable to see any more of the 3-1 win over Plymouth on Saturday than the goals, but from what I saw, Van Persie had a good game as captain, and from what I’ve read, Nasri looked sparky too.

The third round hasn’t produced as many shocks as last season, but with the draw for the fourth round pairing some big guns together, the maximum number of Premiership clubs surviving it is twelve, and chances are we’ll be down to single figures.

And we should be one of them, with a trip to Cardiff awaiting, which should be interesting for Aaron Ramsey. A few years ago we knocked them out in the third round, and this one should be equally comfortable. It is a good draw. Liverpool and United have far tougher opponents (although they are at home), while Chelsea have managed to get themselves a replay to contend with before they even reach that stage, which is frankly hilarious.

Without a midweek game, thoughts now inevitably turn to the transfer window, and the best piece I’ve seen written about it so far was by GilbertoSilver over at Gunnerblog, who suggests that we may only replace the attacking force of Cesc this month, and wait until the summer to sort out the equally, if not more, pressing issues of central defence and defensive midfield.

It’s a theory I agree with, because Wenger isn’t a fan of the January window, with its inflated prices compared to the summer and the requirement for a player to quickly settle if he is to have any impact. There is a good chance that Wenger is risking Champions League qualification on the current squad, after a summer in which he tried, but failed, to bring in the players he was after. And he certainly was after a central midfielder, if nothing else - next summer he will surely try again.

In the current climate, where even our chairman is warning that the amount of money we have to spend may be small, we cannot afford to pay over the odds, which means we cannot and should not compete with Man City for anyone. Like Chelsea in the early days of Abramovich, they are splashing huge sums on players who aren’t at the top of the game.

I would be surprised if we got Arshavin - although his agent keeps talking about our interest, and I’m sure there is some, he is one of the most touting agents in the game (and that takes some doing), and with interest going beyond our club, we are likely to lose a bidding war.

Whatever happens, happens, but the major moves are likely to occur towards the end of the month, when City have started the merry go round with their millions. Until then, we wait.

1. Arsenal managed 71 points from 38 games played in 2008, with 36 from the last 18 of last season, and 35 from the first 20 of this. 71 points in a league season has always been comfortably enough to finish in the top four, which suggests that we are well on the way to Champions League football next season. Chelsea had the best 2008, with 86 points.

2. Despite many predicting that Villa will break the Big Four hold, they actually only managed 58 points in 2008, far fewer than the big teams, because they amassed only 20 points in 18 games at the end of last season. Given that their squad is no bigger this time around, and that their European interest is still strong, it would not be a surprise for history to repeat itself and their challenge to fade.

3. Statistics would actually point to Everton being the closest challengers to the big teams this season, after amassing 64 points in 2008. They’ve done it before, back in 2005, but have to come from behind to do it this time, unlike that season.

4. We have kept clean sheets in only fourteen of 38 games, only around a third, which is plainly not good enough. Proportionally however, we managed the same in the first half of 2008 as the second half, which actually suggests that the oft-mooted reason of Flamini leaving in the summer may not be the whole story.

5. We have failed to score four times in 2008, against Wigan last season, and Fulham, Villa and Man City this. Four in 38 is not too bad, but the opposition the shut outs have come against have been a surprise.

6. Fourteen times in 2008 we scored in a Premiership match but didn’t win it. On three of those occasions we managed two goals without winning, while that match against Spurs saw our four goals still not bring the points home.

7. Of the fourteen matches we scored in but did not win, we actually led in nine of them, but could not hold on to the advantage. No other big side lets leads slip as often as us.

8. The often spoken points target of 40 points to avoid relegation is now a myth. Last season six clubs failed to reach the magic number, while 36 was enough to save Fulham. This season should be similar, with Bolton 11th and still only heading for 43 points. 36-37 should be enough once again in the closest relegation battle in years.

9. Perhaps the biggest unheralded success story of 2008 has been Wigan. In the drop zone this time last year, they have managed 52 points in the calendar year and in only 37 games. If they keep that up they’ll be in Europe next term.

10. Arsenal finally managed to win again at Stamford Bridge, and mirrored the 2003/04 success by coming from behind to triumph 2-1. And that season’s team did okay, really…

Arsenal 1 (Gallas 81) Portsmouth 0
(Premiership)

A dull game and an uninspiring performance matters little when you pick up the three points, a mantra George Graham stuck to for years, and one that the returning Tony Adams, in the opposition dugout at Arsenal for the first time, would’ve recognised and appreciated in his own way.

There is very little to speak of from the game, except that both sides looked woefully short of confidence. Crouch could’ve opened the scoring, heading against the post in the first half, but other than that Portsmouth rarely threatened, while our main opportunities came whenever David James flapped at a ball.

Adebayor had the one exceptional chance, being sent through by Diaby only to be denied by a superb recovery tackle, and later he would hammer a fairly simple chance into the side netting. But just as you got the feeling that we would fall further from the top in the sort of game the big sides somehow nick, we managed just that, when James again flapped at a Denilson free kick, Gallas getting there just in time to head home.

And that was that. We actually kept a clean sheet, only our sixth in twenty league games this season, and moved back into fourth, with Villa playing Hull tonight. It was also a boost for the much maligned Gallas, who despite his at times abysmal defending has regularly popped up with crucial goals. This was another.

So a turbulent 2008 ends well, and the much feted and equally despised transfer window opens on Thursday. It promises to be interesting - City are going to splash the cash, West Ham, Portsmouth and others need to sell, while plenty of clubs have obvious weaknesses, us included. Quiet it probably will not be.

But that doesn’t start for two days, so until then, have a happy New Year.

When considering what changes could and should be made in January, there are a few obvious deficiencies, but one of the most infuriating things about the current malaise is that when you look around the team, the individual ability on display is actually excellent. The defence, for example, contains Sagna, who is among the best full backs in the league, Gallas, who was a lynchpin in Chelsea’s mean rearguard, Silvestre, winner of so much at United, Toure, fantastic for us in the past, and Clichy, who has made us not miss Ashley Cole one bit.

So how come they can’t stop conceding ridiculous goals? It isn’t experience - that quintet has that in abundance. A lack of support from midfield isn’t helping, but they have the ability and the know how not to be making the individual errors we are seeing time and time again.

I think it comes down to mental strength. When you look around the team that started against Villa, it is hard to know where the inspiration and drive will come from. Who has the mental fortitude to instill the sort of pride we saw in the last half an hour against Liverpool?

Out of eleven players, you’d expect at least half to have steel up top, and indeed when you look at our rivals the number is usually seven or eight. So what of our Villa eleven?

Almunia - Check. He actually acts as a captain, yelling at his players and organising defensive set plays. He also seems to be one of the only players that cares about a clean sheet.

Sagna - Check. A shining light in our defence this season, although my fading Christmas lights would shine amongst some of the current crop.

Toure - Debatable. Two years ago you would say yes, but seems short on confidence and perhaps health after his bout of malaria, and looks a shadow of the player he was, in body and mind. Used to tear around the pitch and has lost that too.

Gallas - No. Strong in all the wrong ways, but again makes schoolboy decisions as he did to concede a penalty on Boxing Day.

Silvestre - No. Surely should be yes, but so far has shown none of the leading by example and experience that so long at Old Trafford should’ve allowed. Looks to have been carried at United.

Song - No, although it might develop. One of the few members of the team who wants to defend, but is too lackadaisical to be called mentally strong.

Diaby - Partially. An unflustered individual, which suggests internal strength, and I don’t think he is as lazy as he looks, his running gait sometimes giving the impression of lethargy. His celebration also suggested the goal really mattered.

Denilson - Yes-ish. Has a little bit of small man syndrome about him, and can put himself about. Unfortunately, he also switches off, but that may be a youth problem rather than one of fortitude.

Nasri - Yes. Like Denilson, he switches off, but has shown already that he’s up for the fight of the Premiership and can perform in the big games (two goals against United and thatpass against Liverpool). I have no worries about Nasri.

Eboue - Er, no.

Van Persie - Partly. Strong in determination, but also a little hot headed, which came up against Liverpool again, when I thought he was going to get himself sent off any moment. But he is a player for the big stage, and once he focuses his spikiness properly, he could be the complete article.

So out of eleven, I’d say Almunia and Sagna are the only ones with the complete mental package, while Van Persie, Nasri and Toure have either had it or will have it again. The rest are a bit flaky in the mind.

And therein lies our problem. Sure, the team missed Clichy, Cesc and Eduardo, who are also of the right mindset, but there just aren’t enough leaders out there, enough players to take the game by the scruff of the neck and make the difference. Too often the buck is passed to others, and too often to Cesc in particular. Now that he is injured, others have to step up.

Today is a great chance to do that. Adebayor returns against a Portsmouth team who looked even leakier than us on Boxing Day. Clichy may be fit too, while Djourou is an unknown.

And how apt it is that just as our mental fragility is exposed once again, one of the most inspirational leaders in our club’s history returns as opposing manager. I hope Tony Adams gets a great reception, and then sees his team get stuffed.

Enjoy the game.

Aston Villa 2 (Barry pen 65, Knight 90) Arsenal 2 (Denilson 40, Diaby 49)
(Premiership)

Given that we’re no longer in the title race, a fact confirmed by the top three’s victories yesterday, and given that no-one but Villa are putting in a realistic fight for our fourth spot, this match was huge. Now consider these two points:

1. Had we lost to Villa, we’d have been six points behind them and in big big trouble.

2. We should’ve been out of the game by half time.

Does it ever seem like I’m trying to convince myself as much as you? In all seriousness, a draw at Villa with a side so shorn of confidence is excellent. But in football, draws can feel like victories, and draws can feel like defeats. And when the opposition come back from 2-0 down to score so late on, the latter becomes the case.

But Villa, for all their celebrating the rescuing of a point, must look back ruefully at a chance missed just as much as us. Before we took the lead, Sidwell crashed a header against the bar, Milner hit the inside of the post, Davies looped another against the bar, and Gallas made a goal saving block.

Had as many of those gone in as they would ‘on another day’, the phrase we often use to bemoan an unfortunate result, we’d have been hammered by half time, and the media would be crucifying us this morning. Instead, we lost no ground to a side that completely outplayed us for large portions of the match.

It was Denilson who opened the scoring, harrying Reo-Coker into a mistake after making a rare gambling run forward, and his cool finish left us imagining a true smash and grab win. Moments later, Sagna pulled off a miraculous overhead kick clearance off the line to deny Agbonlahor an equaliser.

When Diaby instigated a marvellous goal at the start of the second half, you really did feel like the tables had turned and we would finally pull off that elusive lucky victory. His jinking run was delightful, and the one-two played with Eboue was perfectly timed, before Diaby lifted the finish over Friedel. His passionate celebration was also good to see, even though it got him booked. Van Persie should’ve made the game safe, but smacked the post.

But once again, we contrived to throw it away. Agbonlahor ran into the box, and despite not being in an especially dangerous position, Gallas lost his cool and attempted a sliding tackle that was never going to get him the ball. A stonewall penalty, and Gareth Barry doesn’t miss those. That left us with 25 minutes to close out a game, a task we have proved time and time again unable to do.

And so we did again. It took until injury time, but in some ways it was so inevitable, and serious questions have to be asked of a team that allows a four on three to develop when a couple of minutes away from securing a vital tight victory. The midfield completely failed to track back, the ball ricocheted to Zat Knight, who fired past an unsighted Almunia.

Plenty of players were culpable, but looking round the reports today I’m glad to see that it has been acknowledged Sagna wasn’t one of them. He was superb, but the rest of the back line, Almunia apart, were just not good enough.

Plenty has to happen in January, but I’ve deliberately not been getting into that until we’ve played our last match of 2008. That comes tomorrow, at home to Portsmouth, and with Villa not playing until Tuesday we can go above them with a win. That really needs to happen now.

I’ve always been one to look on the bright side, so when the worst possible news came in today that Cesc’s injury was going to rule him out for around four months, I immediately looked for the positives.

And the one I come back to is that now, surely, Wenger will look to bolster the midfield in January. Up to now, his reliance on Cesc, coupled with his faith in Song, Denilson and Diaby, has put us in a situation where the resources are stretched, to say the least, but now that Cesc is out for the best part of the season, we’re left with a holding-attacking combination of Song and Denilson. Inspiring? Thought not.

Both players are capable of turning into class acts, but plainly neither are ready. It seems churlish that the absence of a 21 year old should highlight the problems in midfield, but surely now that our talisman is out of action for all but the last few weeks of the campaign, strengthening in January is a must.

That we needed reinforcement in the transfer window was already clear, but now that need is emphasised, and even Wenger appears to acknowledge the fact when asked whether he intends to get the chequebook out:

“‘It is more likely but we also have internal solutions and we are not desperate”

In other words, he is continuing to show the faith but realises the numbers simply do not add up.

In a way, it is fortunate that the transfer window is only a little over a week away, and that the Christmas schedule is not as hectic as in previous seasons.

But thoughts of January can wait. In the meantime, we have a critical match with Villa on Boxing Day. Let’s make that the focus.

But Cesc, get well soon. And let us not allow one injury to derail us. A big club should never be in that situation.

Yesterday was a real up and down day. On the plus side, we saw a wonderful Van Persie goal, half an hour of great fighting spirit, and one of the best crowd responses to adversity we’ve had in a long time. On the down side, our defending was again poor for Liverpool’s goal, Ade was sent off and consequently misses the vital Villa game, and worst of all Cesc will miss at least a few weeks with knee ligament damage, the extent of which remains unknown.

So what to make of it all? Well, firstly, we need to accept one thing, and one thing only, and that is that we are not going to win the title. That we are even mathematically in it is thanks only to the inconsistent form of the other three contenders, but to take advantage of that we’d need to put together a scorching run, which is at best unlikely.

No, more realistic is to watch Villa very closely, as they are becoming more realistic challengers for a top four berth than ever before. One thing that works against them is their entry into the Intertoto Cup in the summer, which put them into the UEFA Cup, a competition they remain in. If they still have European interest in March, they’ll surely fall away in the league - they don’t have the squad depth to cope.

But for now at least, they are a danger, and can stretch their lead over us to six points if they win at Villa Park on Boxing Day. And with the pace of Young and Agbonlahor up against our leaky defence, they’ll fancy their chances. What we need to do is fight like we did yesterday, where we knew we were up against it and raised our game accordingly. That should now be the norm.

I maintain that Adebayor’s red card was ridiculous, and indicative of a referee too quick to clamp down on tackles. How ironic, as Wenger pointed out, that the likes of Bolton and Blackburn are allowed to hack at our players’ legs all afternoon and take credit for it, but our players can be sent off for something so much softer.

As for Cesc, his injury prognosis is vital. On the one hand, the boy needs a break, having played all summer and become the talisman of this team so quickly. On the other hand, we need him. A three week break may not be a disaster, anything more than that and we’ll be worried.

One other thing came out of yesterday, and that was my belief that not only are we not in the title hunt, neither are Liverpool. That may seem like a daft thing to say about the league leaders, but to win the title you have to grasp opportunities. Too often of late they’ve dropped points a more adventurous team would’ve taken, and like Arsenal, I believe they are only where they are because of the inconsistency of United and Chelsea. The difference is those two teams can put a run together, whereas I’m not sure Liverpool or Arsenal can at present.

You can see why Liverpool thrive in Europe, where doing just enough over two legs gets you through, but in the Premiership, you effectively have to win both the home and away leg against many of the opposition. Liverpool aren’t there yet.

But they are not our current rivals. Let’s make sure we push Villa down the league and get back where we belong before we start worrying about the other three.

Arsenal 1 (Van Persie 24) Liverpool 1 (Keane 42)
(Premiership)

Post-match interviews with Arsene Wenger normally see him mention spirit, togetherness and mental strength, even though at times this season it has been exactly those traits that have been lacking. But for the last half an hour of today’s game, when their backs were against the wall, those attributes finally came to the fore.

And they had to, because circumstances had put us in an awful position. Cesc was injured on the stroke of half time, launching into a crunching 50-50 tackle and not getting up, before Howard Webb handed Liverpool what seemed to be an enormous advantage in the second half, sending off Adebayor for his only two fouls of the entire contest. More on that later.

The first half was sometimes scrappy, other times brilliant, with neither defence looking all that comfortable but neither attack having the guile to take advantage, until Nasri’s raking ball from his own half found Van Persie chesting the ball down with his back to goal, still outside the area. From there, I was convinced he would shift the ball on to his favoured left and strike it, and Carragher seemed to think the same, as when Van Persie beautifully turned it on to his right foot, it bought him just enough time to lash home. It was a great goal which lit up what had been an attritional contest.

But after looking comfortable for around ten minutes, the defence again went to sleep, Agger’s hoof out of defence dropped over Djourou’s head, and Keane was quickest to react, lashing home on the half volley with a confidence that belies his sluggish first season at Anfield. Before half time, Liverpool perhaps should’ve taken the lead, and if Kuyt’s cut back had been more accurate, Gerrard would’ve had a tap in. As it was, Gerrard had to stretch, and missed.

But as half time approached, the one player we all feared getting injured did just that, and the way Cesc hobbled away at half time looked really bad. But early estimates have his recovery time at one to three weeks, and if that is the case then we’ve really gotten away with one. Having Cesc injured for any length of time could completely derail what remains of our season, so reliant are we on his creativity and, now, leadership.

Liverpool started much the stronger in the second half, and looked much the likelier side to win it. None of the midfielders were supporting the strikers, and Cesc’s injury seemed to completely flatten morale. And then the referee contrived to make things worse.

Adebayor committed two fouls in the whole match, and both were incredibly harshly deemed to be yellow card offences. The second, where he simply put his body in the way of the ball, only to see Arbeloa throw himself to the ground in embarrassing fashion, would have been laughable had he not been our player. Surely even the most blinkered Liverpool fan would see Ade’s red as ’soft’, at the very least.

But in truth, it may have done us a favour, because sensing the world was against them, the ten men fought harder than I can remember seeing them do before, and Almunia didn’t have to make a save for the rest of the match. Song, so often criticised, had probably the best half an hour I’ve seen him have for the club, breaking up every Liverpool attack, but he was far from alone. If they play like that for the rest of the season, we’ll be absolutely fine.

As it is, we’ll be without Adebayor and Cesc for the crucial trip to Villa Park on Boxing Day, so it is important that those who fought tooth and nail today do the same on Friday. But who knows with this team?

Let’s just hope we don’t get Howard Webb again, eh?

Another busy day at boardroom level with Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith wasting no time in producing a stinging response to her exit from the club, claiming she was ousted and knows nothing of the reason why:

‘I can’t understand why I have been removed in such a ruthless fashion. I had no intention of selling my shares and was no threat to the lockdown agreement between the directors. I have also had no proper explanation as to why they wanted me out so much. It is very difficult to accept, especially after what my family has done for Arsenal for so many years. I am extremely upset at what’s happened and the way it has been done.’

Ouch. These are very strong words from a woman clearly unhappy at the way this has been handled. Any thoughts that this was a mutual split have now gone, and possibly along with it any hopes that a remaining member of the board would buy up and secure her substantial share slice.

The hope remains that she holds on to her shares for the time being, a wish that is backed up by her closing comments:

‘I’ve never had a thought of selling my Arsenal shares, and I still don’t.’

On the one hand, this statement is reassuring, but as Arseblogger points out, this should be taken with a pinch of salt as her pleading ignorance to the reasons for her departure don’t make a great deal of sense. Either way, however, it would be a crazy time for her to sell. The value of her stock has dropped horrendously, and having owned those shares for so long she’ll know that this is a particularly low point. Besides, having made the above statement, she’ll look incredibly disloyal if she goes back on it.

That said, it would surprise no-one to see her made offers far above the market value, and I would hope that along with Usmanov, whose move is inevitable, someone from the existing setup tries to convince her that the Uzbeki needs to be kept away.

It is unclear who her ire is aimed mostly at, whether it is the remaining Fiszman, one of the two new arrivals, Kroenke and Gazidis, or a combination. Obviously, with new blood on the board, changes were inevitable, but it seems that once again, it hasn’t been handled in the neatest way. But at that level of such a huge organisation, can it ever?

On the the football, and the Champions League draw has been made, with us been paired with Roma, so we’ll be playing them for the first time since the 2002-3 season, where Henry’s hattrick in Rome in the opening match of the second group stage was eventually overshadowed by three home draws that put us out.

It isn’t a bad draw to be honest, we’ve got a good record against Italian sides recently so I’m pretty happy with that. Elsewhere, there’s some brutal ties for the rest of the Premiership - Liverpool have Real, United meet Mourinho’s Inter, and Chelsea face Juventus. Three Anglo-Italian ties should be very interesting.

Enjoy your Friday.

Yesterday was a big day in the Arsenal boardroom, with the announcement of a major reshuffle, with goings both in and out. New Chief Executive Ivan Gazidis joins the board officially, while Richard Carr steps down. Carr will continue in his role as a director, overseeing the academy side of the club.

Neither is a huge shock - the arrival of Gazidis was already known, while Carr may be off the board but it simply lowering his workload, which given that he is past retirement age is somewhat wise. That he remains a director indicates that from a practical point of view, his departure means little. After 27 years, he deserves a break.

The one big surprise, which seemed to be passed off as a footnote on the original report, is the departure of Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith, one of the major shareholders (her 15% is only bettered by Fiszman and Usmanov). Her exit breaks a run of Bracewell-Smiths being on the board dating back to World War II, and has come out of absolutely nowhere. She has gone from board member to not being involved at all in one sentence.

That she is leaving so suddenly causes alarm bells to ring. It should be remembered that she has been involved with Arsenal for a long time, and her husband (whose shares hers originally were) is a cousin of both chairman Peter Hill-Wood and major shareholder Danny Fiszman. Arsenal are a family run club, and for one of its own to depart so abruptly is not a good sign.

There are various rumours abound that tensions in the boardroom led to this split, with Lady Nina being increasingly cast aside in the major decisions. But the truth is that we just don’t know. Peter Hill-Wood has tried to answer some questions on the official site, but his answers create further speculation:

“Lady Nina is no longer representing the Club and therefore is released from the lockdown. However it was created to maintain stability in the Club and those participants are committed to maintaining the ownership structure as it is.

I don’t know for certain what she wants to do with her shares. I do know that the Bracewell-Smith family have been involved with the Club for many, many years and are great supporters.”

While it is true that her family have been involved for many a year, that is the family she married into rather than her own. After so long, however, it can be hoped that the Arsenal value system and hers now meet, and Hill-Wood does go on to suggest that she agrees with the need to avoid external money (i.e. Usmanov).

So the question is what she will do with her shares now. 15% is a huge amount, enough for the existing board to close ranks even further if Stan Kroenke decides to increase his stake, or if Gazidis buys into the club (something he has done in the past and has the wealth to do again).

Of course the cloud is Alisher Usmanov, but for Lady Nina to sell to him would be as much of a betrayal of the club and its board as when Dein sold out (and I mean that in every sense of the phrase). Yes, he would pay over the odds, as he has done before, but Lady Nina is not exactly short of a bob or two.

One thing is for certain - she will be made an offer, possibly from both sides, and her decision will have an enormous impact on the future of our club. Let’s hope she chooses wisely.